000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE NORBERT AT 15.1N 106.4W AT 07/0900 UTC OR 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...NORBERT APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN. A SOLID MASS OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLOUD TOPS TO -80C AND -90C HAS CONSOLIDATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST /CDO/. IN ADDITION...A PROMINENT AND INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED BAND SPIRALS AROUND THE W AND NW QUADRANTS AND EVENTUALLY CONNECTS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CDO. NORBERT SHOULD INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE N AND NE LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHER MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE 12N88W 1007 MB IS DRIFTING ENE LESS THAN 5 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP EASTERLIES ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING CONSIDERABLE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WITH LATEST CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE STRONG SHEARING CONDITIONS HAVE PREVENTED INTERMITTENT AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. IN FACT...THE NEAREST CONVECTION IS BETWEEN A RADIUS OF 75 AND 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS AS IF THE SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE FROM 06N77W TO 10N100W TO 07N113W TO 13N122W TO 12N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 77W TO 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 113W. SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE...NOW A SWIRL OF NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS...ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW NEAR 18N125W. WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES DID INDICATE A BRIEF PUFF OF -50 TO -60C CLOUD TOPS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THAT HAS SINCE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. EVEN THOUGH MARIE CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN...A 0234 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEING MAINTAINED BY THE STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE NW OVER THE MID-LATITUDE NE PACIFIC. WITH NO CONVECTION LEFT...MARIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TODAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF A WAVE TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH CAME OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD WELL INTO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 24N112W TO 10N124W TO 08N140W. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING VERY GRADUALLY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THEIR POINT OF ORIGIN...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 136W. LATE THIS WEEK...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR WEST ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT...NW TO N GALES SHOULD FORM OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVERSPREAD THE NW WATERS OF THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT OVER THE FAR N LATE THU AND REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. $$ KIMBERLAIN